{"id":78937,"date":"2024-04-12T03:46:22","date_gmt":"2024-04-12T08:46:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/akunq.net\/tr\/?p=78937"},"modified":"2024-04-12T03:46:22","modified_gmt":"2024-04-12T08:46:22","slug":"zafer-maglubiyet-soru-isaretleri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/akunq.net\/tr\/?p=78937","title":{"rendered":"Zafer, ma\u011flubiyet, soru i\u015faretleri"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/div>\n
Yetvart Danzikyan<\/a><\/span> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n
CHP\u2019nin se\u00e7im galibiyetinde \u0130mamo\u011flu ve Yava\u015f gibi siyaset\u00e7ilerin kritik bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hata yapmad\u0131klar\u0131 s\u00fcrece gerek \u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019nun gerekse Yava\u015f\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nleri a\u00e7\u0131k. Peki riskler ve soru i\u015faretleri neler? \u015eunlar: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de demokratik ve \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck\u00e7\u00fc hareket ne zaman hamle yapsa, oylar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rsa, kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nce muhafakazak\u00e2r-sa\u011f siyaseti, sonra da sa\u011f siyasetle i\u00e7i\u00e7e ge\u00e7mi\u015f devlet g\u00fc\u00e7lerini bulur. Ve CHP Genel Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel\u2019in, MHP Lideri Bah\u00e7eli\u2019ye yan\u0131t verirken yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 analiz , nedense pek yer bulmad\u0131 medyada.<\/span><\/strong><\/em><\/div>\n
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31 Mart Yerel Se\u00e7imleri\u2019nin gerek muhalefet, gerekse iktidar kanad\u0131nda yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cbeklenmedik\u201d sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 tart\u0131\u015fmaya devam etmekte beis yok. Zira kritiktir. \u00d6ncelikle: \u201cBeklenmedik\u201d diyorum zira Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu 12 puanl\u0131k bir fark\u0131 belki kendisi de beklemiyordu. 2019 hari\u00e7, son y\u0131llarda her se\u00e7imden y\u0131lg\u0131nl\u0131kla \u00e7\u0131kan CHP se\u00e7meni ise, evet, bir galibiyet bekliyordu, ama 12 puanl\u0131k bir fark? Bu \u00f6zg\u00fcven pek yoktu. Ankara i\u00e7in de benzer \u015feyler s\u00f6yleyebiliriz.<\/p>\n

Esas \u201cbeklenmedik\u201d olan muhtemelen CHP\u2019nin se\u00e7imden birinci parti olarak \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 oldu. Evet ekonomik kriz vard\u0131, evet AKP art\u0131k siyasi olarak topluma bir gelecek sunam\u0131yordu, evet Erdo\u011fan art\u0131k eski performans\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok uza\u011f\u0131ndayd\u0131. Ama birinci parti olmak? Bence CHP se\u00e7meninin belki de pek az\u0131 bunu bekliyordu.<\/p>\n

\u0130ktidar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan da herhalde ikinci parti olmak pek de beklenen bir durum de\u011fildi. Evet \u0130stanbul aday\u0131 zay\u0131ft\u0131, hele Ankara aday\u0131 ba\u015fl\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na k\u00f6t\u00fc bir se\u00e7imdi. Ama Erdo\u011fan her zamanki gibi bu se\u00e7imi de gelip kurtaracakt\u0131. Kald\u0131 ki b\u00fcy\u00fck medya ellerinde de\u011fil miydi? Neredeyse her ak\u015fam bir aday, kalan ak\u015famlarda da Erdo\u011fan televizyona \u00e7\u0131kar, mitingler de g\u00fcn boyu yay\u0131nlan\u0131r, olur biterdi. Sosyal medyada da karalama propagandalar\u0131na h\u0131z verildi mi, tamamd\u0131 bu i\u015f. \u0130stanbul ve Ankara kaybedilse bile psikolojik \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck pek\u00e2l\u00e2 AKP\u2019de kalabilirdi.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6yle olmad\u0131. Ekonomik kriz, bilhassa Anadolu\u2019daki se\u00e7menler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, 2023\u2019teki \u201cAcaba ge\u00e7ici mi?\u201d vasf\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti ve krizin uzun bir s\u00fcre i\u00e7in kal\u0131c\u0131 oldu\u011fu belli oldu. Ayr\u0131ca Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n da krizi \u00e7\u00f6zmek i\u00e7in bir form\u00fcl\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Kurtar\u0131c\u0131 diye getirilen Mehmet \u015eim\u015fek\u2019in hamleleri krizi \u00e7\u00f6zmek bir yana, daha da derinle\u015ftiriyordu, dar gelirliler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan.<\/p>\n

\u0130srail ile ticaret de ayr\u0131 bir meseleydi. Evet AKP se\u00e7meni Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n pek \u00e7ok 180 derecelik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc hi\u00e7 sorun etmemi\u015fti. \u00c7\u00f6z\u00fcm s\u00fcrecinin kendisini de, s\u00fcre\u00e7ten bir anda geri d\u00f6n\u00fclmesini de, ABD ile bir k\u00fcs bir bar\u0131\u015f\u0131k olunmas\u0131n\u0131 da, M\u0131s\u0131r Devlet Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Sisi\u2019nin bir d\u00f6nem en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00fc\u015fman, bir d\u00f6nem dost olmas\u0131n\u0131 da, faizin bazen \u2018nas\u2019, bazen gereklilik olu\u015funu da kald\u0131rabilirdi. Ancak soyk\u0131r\u0131ma varan bir Gazze operasyonda \u0130srail ile ticarete devam etmek belli ki AKP se\u00e7menin en az\u0131ndan bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn art\u0131k \u201csindiremeyece\u011fi\u201d bir durum olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Peki \u015fimdi ne olacak? Muhalif kamuoyundan gelen analizler, genel olarak AKP\u2019nin art\u0131k bitti\u011fi, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n siyasi hayat\u0131n\u0131n da art\u0131k bitmek \u00fczere oldu\u011fu y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. 1989 yerel se\u00e7imleri s\u0131k s\u0131k hat\u0131rlan\u0131yor bu analizlerde. Hat\u0131rlanacakt\u0131r ANAP\u2019\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7mesinin en kritik a\u015famas\u0131yd\u0131 o se\u00e7imler ve SHP %28,6 ile birinci parti, DYP %25,1 ile ikinci parti, ANAP da %21,8 ile \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc parti olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Evet o se\u00e7imler ANAP i\u00e7in sonun ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 oldu. Ancak sosyal demokrasi i\u00e7in bir \u015fahlan\u0131\u015f d\u00f6neminin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 olamad\u0131. 1991 se\u00e7imlerinden (Demirelli) DYP %27 ile birinci parti \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f, (Mesut Y\u0131lmazl\u0131) ANAP %24 ile ikinci parti \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015f, B\u00fclent Ecevit\u2019in DSP\u2019si ile rekabet ve \u0130SK\u0130 skandal\u0131 m\u00fccadele etmek durumunda kalan Erdal \u0130n\u00f6n\u00fcl\u00fc SHP %20,8 ile \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn\u00fc parti olmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Buna ra\u011fmen siyasi dengeler yine de SHP\u2019ye ve Erdal \u0130n\u00f6n\u00fc\u2019ye DYP ile koalisyon kurma ve h\u00fck\u00fcmete gelme \u015fans\u0131 tan\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak ne yaz\u0131k ki 1993 y\u0131l\u0131nda K\u00fcrt meselesinin ve \u201casker\u201din siyasete a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koymas\u0131 ile manzara tamamen de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bunlar\u0131 niye anlat\u0131yorum? \u201cYine ayn\u0131s\u0131 olur\u201d t\u00fcr\u00fcnden bir \u2018gaml\u0131 bayku\u015f\u2019luk yapmak de\u011fil niyetim. \u201cTarih tekerr\u00fcr eder\u201d laf\u0131n\u0131 pek sevsek de ayn\u0131 suda iki kere y\u0131kanmay\u0131z, hem su de\u011fi\u015fmi\u015ftir hem de bizler. Bu kez ko\u015fullar farkl\u0131 hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz. AKP\u2019yi 22 y\u0131l boyunca birinci parti yapan ku\u015fak, yerini yeni bir ku\u015fa\u011fa b\u0131rak\u0131yor. Nesil de\u011fi\u015fti. AKP\u2019nin toplumun t\u00fcm kurumlar\u0131n\u0131 tahrip eden siyaseti de \u00f6yle g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor ki bir b\u0131kk\u0131nl\u0131k yaratm\u0131\u015f durumda. (Yine de \u015funu hat\u0131rda tutmak laz\u0131m: \u0130l genel meclisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda AKP\u2019nin oy oran\u0131 CHP\u2019nin sadece 1,2 puan alt\u0131nda: % 32, 88 d\u00fczeyinde.)<\/p>\n

Keza CHP\u2019nin se\u00e7im galibiyetinde de Ekrem \u0130mamo\u011flu ve Mansur Yava\u015f gibi siyaset\u00e7ilerin kritik bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hata yapmad\u0131klar\u0131 s\u00fcrece gerek \u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019nun gerekse Yava\u015f\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nleri a\u00e7\u0131k.<\/p>\n

Peki riskler ve soru i\u015faretleri neler? \u015eunlar: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de demokratik ve \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck\u00e7\u00fc hareket ne zaman hamle yapsa, oylar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rsa, kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nce muhafakazak\u00e2r-sa\u011f siyaseti, sonra da sa\u011f siyasetle i\u00e7i\u00e7e ge\u00e7mi\u015f devlet g\u00fc\u00e7lerini bulur. Bilhassa 2015 sonras\u0131nda, yani AKP\u2019nin, MHP ve di\u011fer geleneksel\u00a0 g\u00fc\u00e7lerle koalisyon yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde devlet kadrolar\u0131 ve yarg\u0131, milliyet\u00e7i ve kimi tarikatlara yak\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lerin eline ge\u00e7ti. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7lerin siyasi alan\u0131 buland\u0131rma kapasitesini 31 Mart\u2019tan hemen sonra Van \u00f6rne\u011finde g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Mazbatan\u0131n \u00f6nce iptal edildi\u011fi sonra da DEM Parti aday\u0131na verildi\u011fi bu iki g\u00fcnde perde arkas\u0131nda neler oldu\u011funu hen\u00fcz tam olarak bilmiyoruz. Benzer operasyonlarla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131r m\u0131y\u0131z? Bilinmez.<\/p>\n

Velhas\u0131l CHP ve muhalefet, ba\u015flad\u0131klar\u0131 bu yolu devam ettirmek istiyorsa, 1989 sonras\u0131 SHP\u2019nin karars\u0131zl\u0131klar\u0131ndan, 1977 sonras\u0131 CHP\u2019nin (ki elbette \u015fartlar bamba\u015fkayd\u0131) tutuklu\u011fundan, yalpalamalar\u0131ndan dersler \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 gerekir. Hepsinden \u00f6nemlisi se\u00e7men tevecc\u00fch\u00fcn\u00fcn dinamiklerini iyi tespit etmesi gerekir. CHP\u2019nin ve muhalefetin \u00f6n\u00fcne gelen f\u0131rsat, heba edilmeyecek kadar \u00f6nemli. Demokrasiyi, insan haklar\u0131n\u0131 ve bar\u0131\u015f\u0131 \u00f6zleyenlerin beklentisi de bu olsa gerek. CHP Genel Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u00d6zg\u00fcr \u00d6zel\u2019in, bayram\u0131n birinci g\u00fcn\u00fc, (CHP\u2019nin se\u00e7im galibiyetini karalamak gayesiyle) \u201cT\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyeti sand\u0131kta kurulmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131r\u201d diyen MHP Lideri Bah\u00e7eli\u2019ye yan\u0131t verirken yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 analiz, nedense pek yer bulmad\u0131 medyada. \u015e\u00f6yle\u00a0dedi\u00a0<\/a>\u00d6zel:<\/p>\n

\u201cBu topraklarda ne zaman devletle millet kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelirse, millet kazan\u0131r. Millet devlet kurar, devletler millet kurmaz. Millet devleti kurar, geli\u015ftirir, anayasas\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirir. Millet ne derse o olur. Son se\u00e7imlerde milletle devleti kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya alanlar, devletin kamu g\u00f6revlilerini, televizyonunu, Anadolu Ajans\u0131’n\u0131 bir siyasi partinin emrine sokup, milletin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na dikenler, bundan ders als\u0131nlar. Ne zaman millet devlet kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya; 1983\u2019te \u2018askeri se\u00e7\u2019 diyenlere \u00d6zal se\u00e7ilmi\u015ftir. Ne zaman millet, devlet kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya: devlet, bu milletin evlatlar\u0131n\u0131n ne giyece\u011fine devlet kar\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Ne zaman devletin baz\u0131 unsurlar\u0131 milletin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda: 15 Temmuz. Ve bu se\u00e7im. Ne zaman milletin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131na devleti dikerseniz millet kimseyi dinlemez; milletin dedi\u011fi olur. Sonra devlet yeni \u015feklini al\u0131r.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00d6zel\u2019in bu s\u00f6zleri bence \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli ve olumlu. En az bunun kadar \u00f6nemli olan Bah\u00e7eli\u2019nin s\u00f6zlerinin siyasette, bilhassa da AKP\u2019de hi\u00e7 tepki yaratmamas\u0131.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.agos.com.tr\/tr\/yazi\/30107\/zafer-maglubiyet-soru-isaretleri\u00a0<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yetvart Danzikyan \u00a0 CHP\u2019nin se\u00e7im galibiyetinde \u0130mamo\u011flu ve Yava\u015f gibi siyaset\u00e7ilerin kritik bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla b\u00fcy\u00fck bir hata yapmad\u0131klar\u0131 s\u00fcrece gerek \u0130mamo\u011flu\u2019nun gerekse Yava\u015f\u2019\u0131n \u00f6nleri a\u00e7\u0131k. Peki riskler ve soru i\u015faretleri neler? \u015eunlar: T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de demokratik ve \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fck\u00e7\u00fc hareket ne zaman hamle yapsa, oylar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rsa, kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda \u00f6nce muhafakazak\u00e2r-sa\u011f siyaseti, sonra da sa\u011f siyasetle […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":78938,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,70],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-78937","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-haberler","category-makaleler"],"yoast_head":"\nZafer, ma\u011flubiyet, soru i\u015faretleri - Bati Ermenistan Ve Bati Ermenileri Sorunlari Ara\u015ftirmalar Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/akunq.net\/tr\/?p=78937\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Zafer, ma\u011flubiyet, soru i\u015faretleri - Bati Ermenistan Ve Bati Ermenileri Sorunlari Ara\u015ftirmalar Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Yetvart Danzikyan \u00a0 CHP\u2019nin se\u00e7im galibiyetinde \u0130mamo\u011flu ve Yava\u015f gibi siyaset\u00e7ilerin kritik bir rol oynad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. 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