{"id":44793,"date":"2017-04-14T03:21:28","date_gmt":"2017-04-14T08:21:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/akunq.net\/tr\/?p=44793"},"modified":"2017-04-14T03:21:28","modified_gmt":"2017-04-14T08:21:28","slug":"son-referandum-anketleri-sonuclarina-gore-evet-hayir-oy-oranlari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/akunq.net\/tr\/?p=44793","title":{"rendered":"Son referandum anketleri sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re evet-hay\u0131r oy oranlar\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\u0570\u0561\u0576\u0580\u0561\u0584\u0578\u0582\u0567\"<\/a>2017 referandum sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmeye y\u00f6nelik 6 g\u00fcn kala son a\u00e7\u0131klanan referandum anketleri sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re evet mi \u00f6nde hay\u0131r m\u0131? Referandum anketlerinde evet oylar\u0131 ile hay\u0131r oylar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark nas\u0131l? Referandum anketleri ile varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekilen karars\u0131zlarda son durum ne? \u0130\u015fte ANAR, SONAR ve Gezici ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketlerinin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son referandum anketleri ve H\u00fcrriyet yazar\u0131 Abd\u00fclkadir Selvi’nin bug\u00fcnk\u00fc k\u00f6\u015fe yaz\u0131s\u0131nda, ismini vermeden a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 3 anket sonucu…<\/em><\/h2>\n

6 Nisan Pazar g\u00fcn\u00fc yap\u0131lacak olan anayasa de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi referandumuna do\u011fru geri say\u0131m ba\u015flad\u0131. Son haftayla birlikte son viraja girildi; anket \u015firketleri art arda ellerindeki son\u00a0referandum anketleri<\/strong><\/a>ni yay\u0131nlamaya devam ediyor. Peki son referandum anketlerinde\u00a0evet<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0mi \u00f6nde\u00a0hay\u0131r<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0m\u0131? Referanduma bir hafta kala, \u00fc\u00e7 ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketi y\u00f6neticisi, anayasa referandumu konusunda farkl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler dile getirdi.<\/p>\n

GEZ\u0130C\u0130 : ERDO\u011eAN TEKRAR DO\u011eDU<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gezici ise, referandum sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tahminlerde bulundu\u011fu analizinde, “Erdo\u011fan, tekrar do\u011fdu. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc MHP\u2019yle ve MHP taban\u0131 ile bar\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 14 y\u0131ll\u0131k iktidar\u0131 boyunca T\u00fcrk milliyet\u00e7ileriyle, \u00fclk\u00fcc\u00fclerle aras\u0131na mesafe girmi\u015fti. Bunu kapatm\u0131\u015f oldu. Referandumun kazanan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan olacak” diye \u00a0konu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

’15 TEMMUZ OLMASAYDI HAYIR Y\u00dcZDE 60-65\u2019\u0130 BULURDU’<\/strong><\/p>\n

– Referandum sonucuna ili\u015fkin bir tahmininiz var m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n

toplumu konsolide etmekte zay\u0131f kald\u0131. Merkez sa\u011f se\u00e7men y\u00fczde 70 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Referandum sonucunu belirleyecek se\u00e7men kitlesi AKP ve MHP\u2019ye oy vermi\u015f merkez sa\u011f se\u00e7men kitlesi. Muhalefet merkez sa\u011f se\u00e7menin kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 giderecek tutum geli\u015ftirmekte ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmad\u0131. MHP taban\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 55\u2019i, HDP se\u00e7meninin de y\u00fczde 15\u2019i evet veriyor. Sand\u0131\u011fa gitmeyen y\u00fczde 15- 17 oran\u0131nda bir kitle var. Bu se\u00e7men \u00f6\u011frenilmi\u015f \u00e7aresizlik ya\u015f\u0131yor, bu se\u00e7mene muhalefet umut olamad\u0131. 14 y\u0131ll\u0131k AKP iktidar\u0131n\u0131n her se\u00e7imi kazanmas\u0131, Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n karizmas\u0131, muhalefet liderlerine g\u00fcvenin azalmas\u0131, kendilerini iktidara ta\u015f\u0131yacaklar\u0131n\u0131 ummad\u0131klar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u2018bir oyumla bir \u015feyi de\u011fi\u015ftiremem\u2019 dedirtiyor. Sand\u0131\u011fa gitmeyenlerin y\u00fczde 55.9 \u2018bir oyumla bir \u015feyi de\u011fi\u015ftiremem\u2019 diyor. Sand\u0131\u011fa gitmeyenlerin y\u00fczde 44\u2019\u00fc gen\u00e7. Bu gen\u00e7lerin e\u011fitim, k\u00fclt\u00fcr, gelir seviyesi azald\u0131k\u00e7a sand\u0131\u011fa sahip \u00e7\u0131kma, liberal demokrasiye sahip \u00e7\u0131kma art\u0131yor. E\u011fitim, k\u00fclt\u00fcr, gelir artt\u0131k\u00e7a sand\u0131\u011fa ve liberal demokrasiye g\u00fcven azal\u0131yor. Halk Erdo\u011fan\u2019dan korkmuyor. Aksine toplumun \u00e7o\u011funlu\u011funda 15 Temmuz\u2019dan sonra Erdo\u011fan\u2019a g\u00fcven artt\u0131. Onu do\u011fal bir lider gibi g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. 15 Temmuz olmasayd\u0131 hay\u0131rlar y\u00fczde 60-65 band\u0131ndayd\u0131. 15 Temmuz \u00f6ncesi ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011fa destek 35, maksimum 37 civar\u0131ndayd\u0131. Son d\u00f6nemde \u00fclkenin bekas\u0131 i\u00e7in, \u00fclkenin daha iyi bir ekonomiye sahip olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in se\u00e7menin \u2018evet\u2019 dedi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle MHP\u2019nin \u2018hem devlet i\u00e7in hem millet i\u00e7in evet\u2019 s\u00f6yleminin etkili oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle iktidar mensuplar\u0131n\u0131n ha\u00e7 ile hilalin kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya geldi\u011fi, \u00fclkemize ha\u00e7l\u0131 seferinin cephe ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00f6ylemi, Papa ve Avrupa liderlerinin bir araya geldi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcleri etkili oluyor. Erdo\u011fan ayr\u0131ca 14 y\u0131ll\u0131k AKP iktidar\u0131n\u0131n hizmetlerini anlat\u0131yor. Ya\u015f y\u00fckseldik\u00e7e bu propagandaya kabul art\u0131yor. Zaten orta ya\u015f \u00fcst\u00fc karars\u0131zl\u0131k fazlayd\u0131. Bu da o se\u00e7menleri evete itiyor. Se\u00e7menin referandumda oylanacak de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi bilme oran\u0131 sadece y\u00fczde 55. Y\u00fczde 45\u2019i bilmiyor. AKP\u2019lilerin ise y\u00fczde 80\u2019i referandum i\u00e7eri\u011fini asla bilmiyor. Erdo\u011fan\u2019\u0131n karizmas\u0131ndan \u00f6t\u00fcr\u00fc, \u2018o yap\u0131yorsa bir bildi\u011fi vard\u0131r\u2019 diye oy verenler y\u00fcksek bir oranda.<\/p>\n

“ERDO\u011eAN TEKRAR DO\u011eDU”<\/strong><\/p>\n

– Kampanyan\u0131n y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131 kim oldu sizce?<\/p>\n

Erdo\u011fan, tekrar do\u011fdu. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc MHP\u2019yle ve MHP taban\u0131 ile bar\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 14 y\u0131ll\u0131k iktidar\u0131 boyunca T\u00fcrk milliyet\u00e7ileriyle, \u00fclk\u00fcc\u00fclerle aras\u0131na mesafe girmi\u015fti. Bunu kapatm\u0131\u015f oldu. Referandumun kazanan\u0131 Erdo\u011fan olacak. Hay\u0131r \u00e7\u0131ksa bile kazanan o olacak. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc milliyet\u00e7ilerin ona oy verdi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Y\u00fczde 55\u2019inin deste\u011fini al\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

BAYRAK\u00c7I: TEK ADAM TEHL\u0130KES\u0130 SE\u00c7MEN\u0130 ETK\u0130LED\u0130, HAYIR \u00d6NDE<\/strong><\/p>\n

SONAR Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Hakan Bayrak\u00e7\u0131’n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/strong><\/p>\n

– Referandum sonucuna ili\u015fkin bir tahmininiz var m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ben 51 k\u00fcsur oran\u0131nda hay\u0131r bekliyorum. Sonar\u2019\u0131n yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporlarda bu \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Burada 1.7 hata pay\u0131 var. Bu hata pay\u0131n\u0131n tamam\u0131n\u0131n evet lehine i\u015flemesi laz\u0131m evet \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 i\u00e7in. Olsa olsa 50.3 hay\u0131r \u00e7\u0131kabilir. Ben \u2018hata pay\u0131 var, evet lehine de bitebilir\u2019 diye bir \u015feyin arkas\u0131na saklanmak istemiyorum. Bu ara\u015ft\u0131rma 20 g\u00fcn kadar oldu ama \u015f\u00f6yle s\u00f6yleyeyim: 5 g\u00fcnde bir tekrarlasan\u0131z, 10 firmaya da tekrarlatsan\u0131z ham sonu\u00e7 birka\u00e7 puan farkla evet \u00f6nde \u00e7\u0131kacakt\u0131r. Y\u00fczde 12-15 oran\u0131nda \u2018karars\u0131z\u0131m, fikrim yok, cevap yok\u2019 diye g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f belirtmeyen bir kitle var. Biz mesleki olarak bunu orant\u0131sal olarak da\u011f\u0131t\u0131r\u0131z. Diyelim ki 44 evet, 42 hay\u0131r \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Orant\u0131sal da\u011f\u0131t\u0131rsak 53 evet 47 hay\u0131r \u00e7\u0131kar, matematiksel olarak. Ben neden matematiksel olarak yapm\u0131yorum. Ki\u015fisel olarak 1 Kas\u0131m se\u00e7imlerindeki ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 tekrarlamak istemem. Ben onu orant\u0131sal da\u011f\u0131tm\u0131yorum. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc konu\u015fmayan kitle, hatta konu\u015fanlar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131 \u00e7ekindikleri i\u00e7in konu\u015fmuyorlar. Telefonla yap\u0131lan anketlerin bir\u00e7o\u011funu dinledim. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn 2.5 milyon civar\u0131nda memur var. Bunlar\u0131n hi\u00e7biri ankette \u2018hay\u0131r\u2019 demiyor. 5 bin ki\u015fiyle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z bir ankette 250 memur olmal\u0131. D\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn bunlar\u0131n hi\u00e7birinde hay\u0131r \u00e7\u0131km\u0131yor nedense. Bu arkada\u015flar bunu g\u00f6ze alam\u0131yorlar. Ben olay\u0131 ba\u015fa ba\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcyorum. 49.9\u2019da da kalabilir hay\u0131r. 55\u2019lere \u00e7\u0131karsa \u015fa\u015f\u0131r\u0131r\u0131m. 40 y\u0131ll\u0131k tecr\u00fcbem bu i\u015fin kafa kafaya bitece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

“TEK ADAM C\u00dcMLES\u0130”<\/strong><\/p>\n

– Kampanyan\u0131n y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131 kim oldu sizce?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tayyip Erdo\u011fan, her zamanki gibi… Erdo\u011fan kendini dinleten bir siyaset\u00e7i. Fakat bu kampanyada Kemal K\u0131l\u0131\u00e7daro\u011flu\u2019nu da be\u011fendim. Konsept olarak da, tarz olarak da hakikaten ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131yd\u0131. Baz\u0131 AKP\u2019lileri muhalif se\u00e7menlerin g\u00f6rmeye bile tahamm\u00fcl\u00fc yok ama bir\u00e7o\u011fu Binali Y\u0131ld\u0131r\u0131m\u2019a sempatik bak\u0131yor. Samimi, s\u0131cak bir siyaset\u00e7i.<\/p>\n

ANAR Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc \u0130brahim Uslu’nun a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 \u015f\u00f6yle:<\/strong><\/p>\n

USLU: ‘HAYIR\u2019CILARIN PERFORMANSI Y\u00dcKSEKT\u0130<\/strong><\/p>\n

– Referandum sonucuna ili\u015fkin bir tahmininiz var m\u0131?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren d\u00fczenli ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar yapt\u0131k. Son olarak mart sonu- nisan ba\u015f\u0131 itibar\u0131yla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 gelecek hafta alaca\u011f\u0131z. Ondan \u00f6nce mart ba\u015f\u0131na ait bir ara\u015ft\u0131rmam\u0131z var. Onda evet ile hay\u0131r\u0131 birbirine \u00e7ok yak\u0131n g\u00f6rd\u00fck. Aradaki fark istatistiksel olarak anlaml\u0131 de\u011fildi. Karars\u0131zlar y\u00fczde 10\u2019lara d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak mart ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren bir\u00e7ok hadise ya\u015fand\u0131. Onlar\u0131n etkilerini hafta ba\u015f\u0131nda bitecek olan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131zda g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/p>\n

– Kampanyan\u0131n y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131 kim oldu sizce?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Bu kampanyada, di\u011fer kampanyalarda oldu\u011fu gibi bir y\u0131ld\u0131z \u00e7\u0131kmad\u0131. Herkes kendisinden bekleneni yapt\u0131. Bir tek \u015fey var: Hay\u0131r bloku kendi performanslar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir performans g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n

http:\/\/www.mynet.com\/haber\/guncel\/son-referandum-anketleri-sonuclarina-gore-evet-hayir-oy-oranlari-2979775-1<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2017 referandum sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmeye y\u00f6nelik 6 g\u00fcn kala son a\u00e7\u0131klanan referandum anketleri sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re evet mi \u00f6nde hay\u0131r m\u0131? Referandum anketlerinde evet oylar\u0131 ile hay\u0131r oylar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki fark nas\u0131l? Referandum anketleri ile varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekilen karars\u0131zlarda son durum ne? \u0130\u015fte ANAR, SONAR ve Gezici ara\u015ft\u0131rma \u015firketlerinin yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son referandum anketleri ve H\u00fcrriyet yazar\u0131 Abd\u00fclkadir […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":44794,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-44793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-haberler"],"yoast_head":"\nSon referandum anketleri sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re evet-hay\u0131r oy oranlar\u0131 - Bati Ermenistan Ve Bati Ermenileri Sorunlari Ara\u015ftirmalar Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/akunq.net\/tr\/?p=44793\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Son referandum anketleri sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re evet-hay\u0131r oy oranlar\u0131 - Bati Ermenistan Ve Bati Ermenileri Sorunlari Ara\u015ftirmalar Merkezi\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"2017 referandum sonu\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 tahmin etmeye y\u00f6nelik 6 g\u00fcn kala son a\u00e7\u0131klanan referandum anketleri sonu\u00e7lar\u0131na g\u00f6re evet mi \u00f6nde hay\u0131r m\u0131? 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